How Big Things Get Done

December 12, 2022
This sharp study by Flyvbjerg (Megaprojects and Risk), a professor emeritus of program management at Oxford University, and journalist Gardner (Superforecasting) draws lessons in planning from megaprojects across the globe. Surveying the budgets and schedules of hundreds of massive development projects, the authors examine construction successes and failures to offer guidance on how to plan better for projects of any size. They extoll the importance of accurate forecasting and explain that progress on Hong Kong’s high-speed rail project in the early 2010s appeared bungled largely because the corporation overseeing construction had projected an unrealistic forecast that they couldn’t meet. Creating better predictions, the authors posit, requires comparing one’s project to similar projects to get a reasonable estimate, something the Hong Kong transit authority failed to do. On the successful side, Flyvbjerg and Gardner hold up the Empire State Building, which was completed 17% under budget, as an exemplar of the “think slow, act fast” approach that emphasizes rigorous analysis and testing before breaking ground. The stories about the high-stakes world of megaprojects fascinate, and the authors excel at pulling from them broadly applicable lessons on foresight and planning. Readers will find this a boon.